Innovation: Biodiversity And Climate Change, A Risk Analysis

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Keywords: 
ecosystem functioning, ecosystems, life sciences, pathogens, environmental protection, climate change, biomass productivity, pests, guidelines, knowledge based systems, meteorology, biodiversity, agriculture, symbionts, decision-support system, information analysis, forest functional diversity, models, climatology, information processing, trees, information systems, information and communication technology applications, risk analysis, knowledge engineering, biological diversity
The effect of climate change on forest biodiversity will be evaluated through better understanding of the ecological processes that shape species composition and are particularly sensitive to climate conditions. Forest species composition will correspond to the assemblage of tree species and both symbiotic and antagonistic species that can drive tree species composition. Climate conditions will include both average and extreme values of climatic variables (e.g. temperature, humidity and wind).

The relationships between forest biodiversity and functioning will be deciphered through better understanding of the respective role of tree species richness and composition and by focussing on the biotic interactions between species. As the fundamental ecological hypothesis behind the diversity productivity relationship is the optimal use of resources, we will analyse the energy flow (i.e. resources production and consumption) across different trophic levels (trees and symbiotic organisms as producers, herbivores and pathogens as consumers).

In a final step we will aggregate the information from the first two steps to predict the effect of climate change on forest productivity through changes in tree species composition. The prediction will be expressed as a risk of dysfunction, in particular the risk of forest productivity loss. Traditionally, the risk for a given system is a function of hazard probability and system vulnerability to this hazard. In this case, hazards will be changes in average and extreme climatic conditions. Vulnerability will be the vulnerability to climate change of forest species that both shape forest composition and are the main drivers of forest biomass productivity. In each step, we will focus on fundamental ecological processes at work so that to deliver more generic scientific outcomes that will allow easier generalization to diverse types of European forest or forest managers expectations than a case by case approach.

PROJECT GOALS:

Forecasting forest diversity under the influence of climatic changes and the consequences for stability and productivity of forest ecosystems
Assess the impact of climate change on tree species assemblages and particularly to better understand the effect of climate conditions on the ecological processes that shape tree species composition such as competition or facilitation, resistance and resilience to pest or pathogen outbreaks.
Evaluate the effect of climate change on tree mycorrhiza, pest herbivores, their natural enemies and fungal or oomycete pathogens. In particular the objective is to focus on response variables to climate change that are both relevant to forest biodiversity and functioning: species composition and population attributes such as abundance and spatial distribution.
Determine the role played by biodiversity in the performance of forests in terms of net primary production i.e. difference between biomass production by trees and biomass consumption or degradation by herbivores and pathogens.
specifically the objective is to disentangle the respective roles played by the richness (how many species?), the functional diversity (how dissimilar are they?), and the composition (which are they?) of tree species in the functioning of mixed forests.
Rate the risk of forest productivity loss under climate change scenarios by designing, developing and implementing conceptual models that will loop the loop; i.e. will relate the vulnerability of forest functioning to forest composition.

The technological objectives of BACCARA are to:
Rank the risk of species loss or changes in proportion in the main European forest categories according to their composition
Give recommendations on tree species composition in order to optimise forest net productivity
Provide guidelines for the construction of user friendly abacuses ranking the risk of loss in forest biomass productivity according to forest tree composition in the main European biogeographical zones.
Design, develop and implement a decision-support system aimed at balancing costs and benefits for the establishment of new forest composition in order to anticipate and mitigate the potential detrimental effects of climate changes on forest productivity.
The concept of BACCARA is to construct a three-dimensional risk assessment model linking climate change, functional diversity, and forest productivity. It will be built up using the following three steps of deductive reasoning:
The effect of climate change on forest biodiversity will be evaluated through better understanding of the ecological processes that shape species composition and are particularly sensitive to climate conditions. Forest species composition will be determined as the assemblage of tree species and both mutualistic and antagonistic species that drive tree species composition. Climate conditions will include both average and extreme values of climatic variables (e.g. temperature, humidity and wind).
The relationships between forest biodiversity and functioning will be deciphered through better understanding of the respective role of tree species richness and composition and by focussing on the biotic interactions between species. Energy flows (i.e. resource production and consumption) across different trophic levels (trees and mutualists as producers, herbivores and pathogens as consumers) will be analysed since the fundamental ecological hypothesis behind the diversity–productivity relationship is the optimal use of resources.
In each step, we will focus on fundamental ecological processes at work to deliver
generic scientific outcomes enabling easier generalization to diverse types of European forest and forest manager expectations than found in a case by case approach.

This innovation is the result of the project

Title: Biodiversity And Climate Change, A Risk Analysis

Acronym: 
BACCARA

Runtime: 
01.01.2009 to 31.12.2012

Status: 
completed project

Organisations and people involved in this eco-innovation.

Please click on an entry to view all contact details.

INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE AGRONOMIQUE

(France)

Role in project: Project Coordination

Contact person: Dr. JACTEL Hervé

Website: http://www.inra.fr

Phone: + 33 5 57 12 28 59

Contact

AGENCIA ESTATAL CONSEJO SUPERIOR DE INVESTIGACIONES CIENTIFICAS

(Spain)

Contact person: Mr. ABAD RUIZ Carlos Manuel

Website: http://www.csic.es

Phone: +34-91-566-8852

Contact

ALBERT-LUDWIGS-UNIVERSITAET FREIBURG

(Germany)

Contact person: Prof. SCHERER-LORENZEN Michael

Website: https://www.geobotanik.uni-freiburg.de/

Phone: +49-761 2035014

Contact

CAB INTERNATIONAL

(United Kingdom)

Contact person: Dr. KENIS Marc

Website: http://www.cabi.org

Phone: +41-324214884

Contact

CENTRE NATIONAL DU MACHINISME AGRICOLE, DU GENIE RURAL, DES EAUX ET DES FORETS

(France)

Contact person: Dr. COURBAUD Benoit

Website: http://www.cemagref.fr

Phone: +33-476762762

Contact

EIDGENÖSSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZÜRICH

(Switzerland)

Contact person: Prof. BUGMANN Harald

Phone: +41-44-6323239

Contact

INRA TRANSFERT S.A.

(France)

Contact person: Dr. LUCAS Pamela

Phone: +33-155352636

Contact

INSTYTUT BADAWCZY LESNICTWA

(Poland)

Contact person: Ms. PIOTROWSKA Hanna

Website: http://www.ibles.pl

Phone: +48-22-7150632

Contact

PEKING UNIVERSITY

(China)

Contact person: Prof. HE Jin-Sheng

Website: http://en.pku.edu.cn/

Phone: +86-10-62754404

Contact

ROYAL HOLLOWAY AND BEDFORD NEW COLLEGE

(United Kingdom)

Contact person: FEBRY Jenny

Phone: +44-1784443019

Contact

STICHTING DIENST LANDBOUWKUNDIG ONDERZOEK

(Netherlands)

Contact person: Dr. SCHELHAAS Mart-Jan

Phone: +31-317485884

Contact

SVERIGES LANTBRUKSUNIVERSITET

(Sweden)

Contact person: Prof. STENLID Jan

Website: http://www.slu.se

Phone: +46-18 67 18 07

Contact

THE UNIVERSITY COURT OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN

(United Kingdom)

Contact person: Mr. STEVENSON-ROBB Frederick

Website: http://www.abdn.ac.uk

Phone: +44-1224272121

Contact

UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DELLA TUSCIA

(Italy)

Contact person: Dr. BERTUCCINI Sandra

Website: http://www.unitus.it/

Phone: +39-0761357466

Contact

UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI PADOVA

(Italy)

Contact person: Prof. BATTISTI Andrea

Website: http://www.unipd.it

Phone: +39-0498272804

Contact

UNIVERSITAET ZUERICH

(Switzerland)

Contact person: Prof. SCHMID Bernahrd

Website: http://www.unizh.ch

Phone: +41-446355205

Contact